The “12-Day War” Sequel: Iranian Government Braces for Shift from Nuclear to Political Targets

Following the 12-day war in June that targeted Iran’s nuclear facilities, the current U.S. deployment marks a significant shift in strategy. The USS Abraham Lincoln strike group is not positioned to hit centrifuges, but to target the political leadership itself. The Iranian government is bracing for a “sequel” to the June war that will be much more personal, aimed at removing the individuals responsible for the suppression of domestic protests.
The Iranian stock market’s record fall on Monday shows that the public expects a far more devastating conflict this time. Inflation at 60% has already “shattered” the economy, leaving the regime with few resources to rebuild after another air campaign. The government is bracing for a strike that will destroy the last vestiges of its political authority, potentially leading to the “toppling” that the U.S. and Israel have long sought.
Ali Larijani has warned that the U.S. is trying to first break public cohesion and only then carry out an attack. This “two-stage” approach is designed to ensure that the regime has no internal support when the missiles begin to land. The Iranian government is bracing for a strike that will test the loyalty of its military commanders, many of whom are reportedly concerned about the impact of the 60% inflation on their own troops.