MIT Study: 95% of Firms Get “Zero Return” on AI, Questioning $3Tn Spend

A recent MIT study has delivered a chilling counter-narrative to the $3 trillion AI datacenter boom: 95% of organizations are getting zero return from their investments in generative AI pilots. This data point “rattled” investor faith and raised serious questions about the “lofty revenue expectations” justifying the massive spend.
The industry is projecting that generative AI revenues will grow from $45bn to $1tn by 2028. This expectation is what’s fueling the $3tn datacenter build-out and “incredible” $750bn spending by “hyperscalers” (Google, Microsoft, etc.). It’s what’s driving Nvidia’s $5tn valuation.
But if 95% of businesses aren’t seeing a return, they will not become the paying customers the industry is counting on. This is why “bubble” warnings are growing. Alibaba’s chair sees “excess” in “speculative” projects, and the Uptime Institute warns many announced datacenters “will never be built.”
These “speculative” projects are being funded by a $1.5tn “private credit” boom. If the 95% “zero return” figure is not a temporary blip but a long-term reality, this $1.5tn in debt, issued against “quickly depreciating assets,” could default.
The industry is caught between the optimism of ChatGPT’s 800 million weekly users and the stark, data-driven skepticism of the MIT report. The $3tn bet is that the 95% failure rate will soon reverse.