US Oil Prices Inch Toward $4 as Iran War’s Third Week Brings No Relief

The third week of the Iran war is bringing no relief to US oil prices, which are inching toward the $4 per gallon mark as markets brace for more turbulence Monday. Analyst Patrick De Haan has forecast pump prices of $3.80 to $3.85 per gallon, while noting that $4 is not yet imminent but remains possible. Three weeks of sustained conflict have created a fragile and volatile energy market that is increasingly affecting the daily lives of American consumers.
The conflict began on February 28 with the first US-Israel strikes on Iran, triggering a sustained rise in oil prices that has continued without significant interruption. From under $3 per gallon before the war, the national average has risen 23% to $3.70, reflecting the cumulative damage to oil supply from three weeks of military operations. The sustained price increase has raised alarm among consumer advocacy organizations and economic policymakers.
US forces struck Kharg Island on Friday, targeting a facility that plays a central role in Iran’s petroleum export infrastructure. Iran’s blockade of the Strait of Hormuz, through which approximately 20% of the world’s daily oil supply flows, has compounded the supply shortfall. Brent crude traded between $103 and $106 per barrel Monday, and US crude held near $94 after briefly touching $100 on Sunday.
California is experiencing the most extreme domestic price impacts, with the state average exceeding $5 per gallon and some Los Angeles stations posting prices above $8. Diesel for the commercial transport sector could reach $5.15 per gallon nationally. The CEOs of Exxon, Conoco, and Chevron have each briefed the White House on the escalating supply crisis, with Exxon’s Darren Woods specifically flagging the risk of speculative market activity driving prices beyond fundamental supply and demand levels.
Wall Street opened the week on a mildly positive note, with the S&P 500 gaining approximately 1% after oil prices briefly pulled back. Oil company shares have reached record highs since the conflict began. The trajectory of US oil prices in the weeks ahead will depend heavily on whether a diplomatic or military resolution to the Iran conflict can be achieved.
Tags: US oil prices, $4 threshold